40 years old is still several years off for me, but I it is very likely I will be a millionaire by the time I reach 40. In fact, if you count my contributions to Social Security (including my employer’s half), the current value invested in my personal “Social Security Trust Fund” puts me there already. But I’m certainly not counting on Social Security.
So, I’ll be rich right? Wrong! First there’s inflation. Many economists say US inflation has been about 4% per year over the last century. There’s a handy rule of 72 that says, for example, 72/4 = 18. That means 4% inflation means that a million dollars today is only worth $500,000 in 18 years and $250,000 in 36 years.
Second, there’s taxes. Over $300,000 of my holdings are in tax-deferred accounts such as 401k accounts and IRA accounts. Sure this money is part of my net worth, but when it comes out at retirement I’ll likely be paying something like 30% tax on it. That’s about $90,000 to Uncle Sam. Poof! Gone!
Back to inflation. Inflation works like a stealth tax. According to government CPI figures, US inflation increased just 1.5% in 2010. That simply doesn’t jive with my experience. My HOA fees increased 7%, my electric and water bill increased 8%. Car insurance, home insurance, satellite TV, health-insurance premiums, internet, rooms at my favorite hotel, and meals at my favorite restaurant went up, by 4-10% last year. Even the local sales tax increased almost 1%, making everything that much more expensive on top of everything else. In Balhiser World 2010 inflation was about 4-5%, rather than the 1.5% according to the CPI. Thus I have some new ideas about what CPI stands for…
- Cagey Price Index (Price? What price? Prices are relative.)
- Calming Price Index (Nothing to see here. Relax. Inflation is under control.)
- Clairvoyant Price Index (Far away someone is substituting chuck steak for Filet Mignon. Meat is meat. And prices are low.)
- Creative Price Index (2+2=3 for sufficiently small values of 2)
- Cowardly Price Index (Please don’t be mad, prices aren’t that bad… see?)
Of course CPI officially stands for Consumer Price Index. Let just say that for the next 72 years the official CPI is 4%, but actually inflation is 5%. That handy rule of 72 says that at 4%, one million dollars today will be worth $62,500 of buying power. At 5% buying power is cut in half to $31, 250. Of a long enough time a 1 percent difference in inflation is a big deal.
So what? Well, the CPI is used for a lot of things such as government cost of living adjustments, tax bracket adjustments, Social Security benefit increases, and money paid on Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, to name a few.
It’s bed time so I’ll cut to the chase.
- One million dollars is not what it used to be, and is certain to be worth much less in the future.
- To try to remain solvent (and avoid unpopular austerity measures) the US Government has a powerful incentive to under-report inflation.
- Many investors and economists are beginning to believe that the CPI significantly under-reports inflation. Examples: “CPI Controversy”, “Bill Gross says so”, “Forbes, pastries, and gold say so too”.