It’s hard, but I believe that if you can’t find a job then make a job. I have been working or in school (or both) since age 11 or 12. I had a shared a paper route with another paperboy (delivering alternate weeks) for a couple years. I worked odd jobs while in junior high and high school including painting fences, mowing lawns and babysitting. In late high school I had summer jobs doing things like HVAC maintenance (as an assistant/gopher), a surveying assistant, and installing Ethernet cable. I even did freelance work for a small/medium-sized publishing company, producing graphics and slides and sent in over a 2400-baud modem.
I always found a job, because a) I needed the money for college, b) I was willing to take what I could find.
Now that I am a professional I have steady work. I’ve also continued to be an entrepreneur as I worked. If I was laid off and couldn’t find work I’d like to believe that I would continue to pursue my entrepreneurial effort. I’d take part-time work (like I did during my school years) to pay for the basics.
I write this after having returned from an internet entrepreneurial group meetup. I get to meet and reacquaint with other entrepreneurs at varies levels in the entrepreneurial process, from “haven’t a clue, just getting started” to “been self-employed for 20+ years”.
If your are unemployed, I’d encourage you to consider what job you would like to create for yourself. Sure, keep applying for “regular” jobs to, and if a good-enough one comes around, take it. In the mean time apply yourself to developing your own small business. I recommend something with low start-up costs, and something that you have a passion for. You may find yourself developing new and valuable skills in the processes… Discover talents you didn’t know you had.
You may, just may succeed in creating a wonderful business. Even if you don’t, you will learn more about yourself, your talents and what you really like (and don’t like). So when you do land that cushy corporate job, you will have a better idea of how to shape your career. Even after landing that job, you might find yourself dabbling in entrepreneurial enterprises.
Marijuana Plant in Pot
As a non-user of marijuana, I find it interesting and unfortunate that many other non-users are opposed to marijuana legalization. My argument starts fiscally. Illegal marijuana is a net cost to society. It finances crime syndicates both in the US and particularly Mexico. Illegal marijuana also poses several direct fiscal burdens:
- Law enforcement costs to arrest and pursue marijuana use and sale cases.
- Expenses to incarcerate marijuana transporters, sellers, buyers and users.
- Cost of taking employed users away from their jobs and family.
Conversely, legalized marijuana provides fiscal benefits:
- Decreased law endorsement expenses. Law enforcement can focus on under-age (under 21) marijuana crimes.
- Decreased incarceration expenses. Freeing non-violent users (and sellers) from prisons will save tremendous sums of money. Further not incarcerating such people in the future saves money.
- Otherwise law-abiding individuals will retain jobs.
- Tax revenue can be collected on legal marijuana.
That is just the beginning of my supporting argument. Think of the other “Freakonomic” effects of marijuana criminalization:
- Drug violence in the form of turf wars and transportation route protection (esp. at border crossings).
- Financial support of other illegal enterprises, such as human smuggling and weapon smuggling.
- Lack of quality controls (regulations) leading to contaminated (with pesticides) and laced marijuana leading to sickness, disease and occasional death of consumers.
Please note that I am NOT advocating the use of marijuana, in the same way (as a non-smoker) that I do NOT advocate the use of tobacco! I avoid both because of their negative health effects.
However, I do use alcohol. I like microbrew beers, fine Scotch, and assorted other libations. I have done some research and have learned that 1-2 alcoholic drinks per day is an overall health-enhancing activity.
I liken marijuana prohibition with alcohol prohibition in a few ways. For example, both have lead to increases in organized crime and related violence. And both reduced sales tax revenues. Further, both moratoriums have lead to poor quality products… such as blindness induced by the lacing of ethanol with methanol during Prohibition.
Now I switch gears to the ethical arguments. I have seen a loved one die of cancer and cancer-induced starvation. Cancer and chemotherapy frequently leads to nausea and vomiting. These are miserable symptoms and lead to weakness and premature death. The 70-something person I refer to was a vital, strong and healthy person before cancer struck. He could do manual labor in his 70s that 30-year-olds would struggle to do. And his mental faculties were also razor sharp. Nonetheless his cancer deprived him of the ability to eat and retain food. This reduced his weight from a trim 165 pound pre-cancer 6’1″ frame to a sad 110 pounds. I personally believe, based on my research, that marijuana would have helped his appetite and nausea, which would have greatly improved his *quality* of life.
There you have it. Financial and ethical arguments for the legalization of marijuana. Note, I don’t couch the arguments in terms of medical marijuana… I speak in general terms. I have had friends and dare I say colleagues who have used marijuana. Some of whom have retained great talents and intellects. On close inspection I have seen their short-term memory impaired in a manner similar to that produced by overindulgence in alcohol. In my college years I have “babysat” many an alcohol overdose “patient” including one time we had to call 911. Conversely, I never had to “babysit” a marijuana OD person. My research confirms that anecdotal evidence. Cliff Notes version: “Alcohol OD bad, marijuana OD… virtually impossible.”
It makes no sense to make marijuana illegal. Tobacco and alcohol are arguably more dangerous… but society has wisely seen clear to regulate rather than prohibit their sale and use. Marijuana should be no exception.
The Crazy Ivan Account is currently up to $25,953. Current holdings are all ETFs, one stock, plus a bit of cash: DTN, INTC, IVV, JNK, MTS, PBP and XLE. “Ivan” is up slightly from its high early this year. XLE has been my worst performing investment, INTC (Intel Corporation) my best. JNK has and continues to pay nice dividends… it’s currently yielding a fat 8.55%.
I’m happy to say the Ivan Account has beaten the S&P500 slightly so far this year. I haven’t crunched the numbers, but I’d wager it has also done so with less volatility than the S&P500. The best thing though is that I can channel my financial energy and emotion through this account, while leaving my other, larger nest egg largely untouched. Plus making low-cost, tax-deferred IRA trades is fun. Bonus!
Wall Street is both a physical location and a metaphor for many things. Wall Street is a metaphor for U.S. stock markets, stock markets, bond markets, futures markets, options markets, commodities markets, OTC markets, banking, investment banking, even business and CEOs…. the list goes on.
Even if the Occupy Wall Street movement has a financial focus, the term “Wall Street” is just too overloaded. And that is assuming the folks gathered there are focused on financial institutions and markets. Some are protesting the Federal Reserve, others the Government, others corporations, others still capitalism. Most are upset about our crappy US economy.
I think much of America looks at the financial world as a mysterious black box, or as a series of opaque entities tied together in a labyrinth only a few now how to navigate.
Some view this financial black box as useful. They invest in mutual funds, stocks, bonds, and ETFs. They take out mortgages and buy insurance. They trust their investment advisers, or go it alone and trust in themselves.
Others view the financial black box as a “wretched hive of scum and villainy”. Some from this group are part of Occupy Wall Street.
I have many good things to say about the version of “Wall Street” that I use. However, I am critical of many parts of Wall Street that I don’t use. Number 1 on my sh– list are many (not all) financial advisers and stock brokers. All too often they put people into funds that are commission-laden, undiversified, and unsuited to the needs of their clients, just to make a lot of extra bucks for themselves. Number 2 on my list are financial analysts (many, not all) whose job seems to be pumping up investments for their proprietary trading beneficiaries.
Nonetheless there are many good things about “Wall Street” and US markets in general. Vastly lower commissions on (online) trades, decimal pricing, lower spreads, low-cost ETFs and mutual fund (esp. index and enhanced-index funds). Free stock quotes and online research.
Back to Occupy Wall Street. I might as well join (though not support per se) with some virtual protests.
- I want a full, independent, and complete audit of the the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury [no I am *not* a Ron Paul supporter].
- I want all shareholder initiatives that pass to be legally binding.
- I want, at a minimum, the right as an index ETF or mutual fund to have my portion of shares be abstain votes (e.g. the fund manager may not vote *my* shares).
- I want (and this is a stretch!) no exit packages for failed CEOs. I’m fine for paying for real success, but I am not fine with paying for failure. If a new CEO wants a financial exit package of more than zero dollars, I want a CEO with more self confidence.
- I want the government to get out of the bailout business.
If any of you Occupy Wall Street (or Occupy XYZ) folks want to use my protests, be my guest.
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Are you excited about Obama’s campaign speech, State of the Union Address, jobs speech presentation to a joint session of Congress? If so, tune in to hear platitudes and ineffectual, half-backed rhetoric. Extended unemployment benefits, trivial hiring incentives, infrastructure, stimulus, Keynesian hyperbole and excuses.
I try to stay out of politics on this blog, but I feel compelled to comment about gross fiscal negligence. I accept the argument that US GDP as a percentage of global GDP is susceptible to decline. As an US citizen I see no reason to accelerate the decline. For elected officials to do just that is negligent, naive, or fundamentally hostile to the general welfare of the United States.
The fact that the US has been so successful from 1945 to present is a testament to something unique and special about our whole socioeconomic system. The fact that we have righted or ameliorated our past social mistakes while improving our economic quality of life is remarkable.
Why our President is so hostile to basic economic factors is shocking. Historically massive US National deficits siphon capital from the private sector. Federally-manipulated low interest rate actions (QE1, QE2) sap safe investment opportunities from senior citizens, while fueling speculation in gold, silver, and commodities ranging from oil to corn to aluminum. Putting the hammer down on domestic oil and natural gas production, particularly off-shore, puts another deep bleeding gouge into the US GDP. Presidentially-dictated EPA mandates on coal plants put US electrical production in limbo. Crony-capitalism (or faux capitalism) puts basic free enterprise on notice to be politically correct as a first priority.
I have been silent too long. I avoid social political issues, but I must address fiscal political issues. This is my first salvo.
S&P made the right declaration: AA+. Moody’s and Fitch showed relative weakness. The downgrade of US Treasurys makes complete sense given that US debt loads will easily surpass 100% of GDP within a decade. The US Treasury accuses S&P of negligence for not using their $20T vs $22T figures. I’ve heard stronger arguments from 8th grade debate teams. [Been there. Done that.]
Here I am, Joe investor, watching the markets whipsaw like mad. I braced for impact in my oh-so-slow way and mitigated perhaps 10% of the damage, but my investments have been generally damaged too.
Maximum caution lies not on either side of the coin, but on the edges. 100% “safe” investments are not safe in the same way that 100% aggressive investments are not safe. Safety should be measured in terms of the following risk factors 1) situational 2) statistical (non-monetary) 3) inflationary (monetary).
In the midst of worldwide and US market turmoil there has been similar chaos in the fledgling currency called bitcoin. It is so “new” that my spell checker suggests “bitchiness” or “bit coin” as alternatives. Meanwhile I’m thinking of a very small exposure to bitcoin as an alternative to precious metals or commodities.
I should disclose that I have I have an emotional connection to bitcoin. Bitcoin has aspects of finance, technology, and financial engineering that are intriguing to me. So please consider this factor as I continue to write.
Bitcoin is all that fiat money is not… Bitcoin is finite! The number one rule I am painfully learning about ANY fiat currency is that it is potentially infinite. (Unbounded, if you will.) The fiat currency “presses” are only bounded by the constitution and discipline of the political systems that underlie them. And these very systems have show over historically documented periods to be ultimately undisciplined. Simply put: lack of monetary discipline leads to economic calamity leads to runaway inflation.
That is one factor that is engineered against in the bitcoin ecosystem. The bitcoin “printing presses” are inherently limited to 21,000,000 bitcoins. Further some bitcoins will be forever lost into the digital black hole.
I am not here to say that there are not flaws with bitcoin (BTC). Just that very few have been discovered yet, and those are very minor so far. I am saying that bitcoin also has unprecedented advantages: 1) digital portability, 2) relative anonymity, 3) potentially fee-less transfer, 4) agent-less security, 5) inflation-resistance. I love all of these factors, especially resistance to inflation.
I am here to say that the business cycle is real. There are booms and busts. And there is government meddling with the business cycle that, in the long run, only magnifies booms and busts. And that bitcoin is one possible antidote. That said, I am sticking with stocks, bonds, ETFs, etc in a not-so-contrarian manner. I just happen to be mining a few bitcoins on the side. Not familar with bitcoin mining? Google it! 
Kudos the S&P for being the first major debt rating firm to downgrade US debt to AA+. Essentially they warned Congress that $4 trillions in cuts was required in a debt ceiling deal, Congress only ponied up about $2 trillion. Bill Gross of PIMCO saw this coming as did many, many others including this finance blog.
The importance of the credit downgrade is the message it sends to voters and to Washington: The US Treasury is not immune the market realities of global economics. The giant US credit card has terms and conditions ultimately dictated by global bond markets. As debt-to-GDP ratios increase so will borrowing costs. The long-term trajectory of US debt growth, under current law, is staggering. Further the cocktail of massive debt, out-of-control debt growth, and a weak US economy do not bode well for future US debt ratings.
Unfortunately I don’t think this message is being heard or understood by a sufficient number of Americans. Gross and El-Erian get it. The US House of Representatives is starting to understand. The Senate and the White House do not. Neithe does the US Treasury saying “There is no justifiable rationale for the downgrade?” Seriously, what meds do they have to be on to say that with a straight face? The American public has a degree of understanding, but not sufficient concern or attention.
The fallout of the downgrade will be modest but wide-ranging. It will be good news for AAA rated companies and countries like Exxon Mobile, Britain and German. The debt rating will be bad news for adjustable-rate mortgage holders, US bond holders, and entities that are required to hold US Treasuries.
If I were to design a new currency I would design something very much like BitCoin. It is a digital currency with about 6.5 million units in circulation. BitCoin will never have more than 21 million units of currency in circulation…. ever. Bitcoin is divisible into tiny fractions of a unit down to millionths of a BitCoin and smaller.
BitCoin is digital money. Imagine PayPal but without the hassle, or the commissions. Image digital gold. Gold which is mined (by computers), but has a known maximum supply of 21 Million ounces.
Gold’s value is largely related to its relative rareness. Gold’s usefulness is pretty limited except as jewelry and a form of currency. Industrial uses of gold consume only a small fraction of gold’s supply. And gold can be mined faster than it is consumed.
Gold cannot be as easily traded or exchanged as BitCoins. Yes gold ETFs can be exchanged for cash which in turn can be used for web transactions, but this is a multi-step process. BitCoins, however, can be easily exchanged from person-to-person or person-to-business with ease.
Today each BitCoin is worth more than $13. BitCoin valuations have fluctuated rapidly. One person, according to Forbes, turned $20,000 into $3 million by buying Bitcoins early then selling them for a killing.
BitCoins may one day be worthless relics on discarded hard drives. Or BitCoins may become the E-commerce alternative replacing PayPal. Right now BitCoins seem to be priced about what the current mining cost will bear. The cost of mining is measured in 1) electricity (energy) and 2) depreciation of the graphics cards used to mine new BitCoins. This tends to put a short-term ceiling on BitCoin prices. However, the BitCoin system makes the cost of BitCoin mining escalate geometrically. Eventually, if all goes optimally, the mining cost will be come prohibitively expensive.
If BitCoins gain wider and wider acceptance I anticipate they will hold or increase in value. However if either of the following happen they will end up virtually worthless: 1) BitCoins simply don’t gain wide acceptance, and lose acceptance over time. 2) The algorithmic infrastructure underlying BitCoin is found to be flawed. There is yet another alternative: That a BitCoin-like system is created the competes with the original BitCoin. Finally one more possibility: various governments outlaw BitCoins.
In closing, BitCoin is a brilliant idea and a risky “investment”. It is riskier than gold, silver, or index ETFs. It is similar in risk to buying options, because the value can rapidly go to zero. However, it is an interesting speculative play that is potentially inflation-proof. Inflation-proof because, unlike government currencies, the printing presses (BitCoin mines), are held in check. Buying 1500 dollars worth of BitCoins is no sillier to me than buying a $1500 gold coin. Just make sure you guard your BitCoins like you would your expensive gold coin… security, security, security. Because BitCoins can be stolen, just like gold. And they can be stolen without the thief even setting foot in your house.
My current employer is radically revamping its 401K plan. I have noticed that companies tweak their 401K plans about annually, and dramatically change them every 5-7 years. This time it’s big. One of the choices allows for both ETF and mutual funds purchases. The EFT option has me excited.
So far in my career I have worked for three Fortune 500 technology companies. Long story short, I have two 401Ks and a couple IRAs. Between them I have about 8% invested in ETFs and the rest in mutual funds. After the 401K redux, I’ll likely have about 30/70 ETF to mutual fund mix. I’ll keep my asset allocation largely the same, but I’ll work out a bit of math here and there to do so. Some mutual funds stay, some funds go, some switch to higher expense-ratio versions, and some are frozen from new money after a certain date. Over time my retirement assets may approach a 50/50 ETF-to-mutual-fund ratio.
A similar 401K change may be coming your way soon. The booming ETF trend is continuing unabated with over $1 trillion dollars in assets under management in 2010; some predict that doubling by 2015. Why? 1) Institutional investors like ETFs, 2) retail investors like ETFs, 3) exchanges like ETFs, 4) brokerages like ETFs. Generally for the same reason: lower costs.
The upside of more options is access to better options and greater potential for diversification. The downside is trading fees for ETFs… $7.95 under the new 401K paradigm. Wise, infrequent purchases can mitigate trading costs. This requires a bit of financial planning, but is not really a big deal for serious investors. And there are ~25 ETFs that trade for free. One can invest in them every paycheck (like buying EEM for free) then periodically, every 6 months or one year, bite the bullet to sell EEM (for free) and buy the better ETF VEU. Brilliant — low fees and true dollar-cost averaging. [Not my idea, but a good one.]
In summary, fear not the change to more ETF-centric investing. Your particular company may pull a fast one on you… but in many cases not. Read ALL the fine print before determining the case. I’m glad I did, and I sense greater investing opportunity.
{EAV_BLOG_VER:520117bfcf76c4b9} See the odd characters at the start of this blog post? They are just part of my effort to build my small business. The allow another website, in this case Empire Avenue to verify that I own this finance blog. Promoting and growing a small business is a marathon. That’s why I’m thinking of starting yet another venture, websqurl.com, to help bloggers and small businesses build their web presence in a very “white-hat” way.
Sorry for this bit of shameless promotion. I’ll be right back to real finance blog posts soon. Ya know… personal finance, ETFs, savings, investing… that kind of stuff.
When did I wake up in Europe? I want to go home, to the USA that I remember. 9.2% unemployment is for France and Italy. I’ve been to these countries — nice places to visit — but not to work hard and get ahead. High unemployment is cultural, normal, systematic.
Is Germany the new USA? It’s the only European country doing well. Germany has pride and strength of purpose. Germany has its fiscal house together.
Is the USA becoming the next France? Jobs for government workers, modest jobs security for those with jobs, and very few prospects for the unemployed and for recent college graduates.
The fixes for our current economic mess are not rocket science. I agree with Bill Clinton’s recent comments… the corporate tax rate needs to be reduced. The U.S. government needs to reduce the self-employment tax that is a huge drain on U.S. small businesses. Congress and the Administration need to encourage, rather than stymie, domestic oil and natural gas production. Finally, an intervention is needed to halt Washington’s latest spending bender. Washington has been drunk behind the wheel of a massive M1 tank, trying to drive the economy, whilst drifting lane to lane and taking out the odd car here and there. That tank, fueled by 14+ trillion of debt, is about to find the price of fuel is about to rise.
Now is not the time for platitudes, or experiments. Now is the time for prudent action.
I am sad that the Space Shuttle is being retired. Such action is merely a symbol of where the US Government, en masse, sees the USA heading. This need not be the case. The US, as a whole, has all that we need to succeed. We are are free, independent, creative, and motivated. The US has shown repeatedly the resilience to challenge adversity and thrive. Why so few lawmakers can see this — communicate this — is baffling to me. Are they simply economically ignorant? Or indifferent?
Until some economically sane action emerges from Washington, I am hedging my personal finances. I’m positioning against the real possibility of long-term, government-sponsored inflation. I’m factoring in the likelihood of the government CPI (CPI-U Urban Consumer Price Index) understating true inflation and overstating the real US GDP.
There is a chance, a glimmer of a chance, that the current debt ceiling negotiations will lead to economically sound changes. I think the chances of that are less than 20%. I will watch closely and act accordingly.
Walking to the Rockies game yesterday, I was struck by the bustling entrepreneurial spirit on display. From the myriad pop-up game-day parking lots (ranging from $25 – $40 per spot), to the ticket sellers (“I buy tickets”, means “I sell tickets”), to the independent street vendors outside the ballpark marketing peanuts and beverages for half the in-ballpark price.
I have been an entrepreneur in training for most of my life. For much of that time I didn’t associate the term entrepreneur with what I was doing, nor would I have been able to spell it. Yet there were several entrepreneurial things I did even before graduating from high school.
- Ran a paper-route (at age 12)
- Door-to-door newspaper sales. To get more revenue and “signing bonuses”
- Picked up odd jobs to make a few bucks. Jobs like fence painting, baby sitting & lawn mowing
- Traded collectible cards… for fun and for profit
- Built a “sluice-box” and panned for gold
In college I did even more. I was trading and auctioning collectible cards via Usenet and the Web… in addition to trading face-to-face. I found that trading up (trading several lower-value cards for one or two high-value cards) was my most lucrative strategy for making money. I had to give up my personal collector’s mindset; to be willing to break up my collections when good deals became available. I learned to put together targeted, marketable, ready-to-use (turnkey) sets in order persuade folks to part with one of their rare, sought-after cards. As I got more market savvy, I learned to trade high convenience for high value. This helped hone my fledgling negotiation skills.
I built up a reputation as a trustworthy vendor/trader who represented the quality of my cards honestly, who mailed them promptly, and packaged them carefully so they arrived in good condition. I was doing this before anyone ever heard of eBay.
In college, I developed a software product called Visual Math 3D. Looking through my notes, the proposed company structure was:
EngimaSoft, a division of Paradigm Software, a branch of Millennium Corp.
No shortage of boldness there! I see now that others have grabbed most of these names. Good for them, they are good names.
Visual Math 3D had a logo and marketing pitch for the cover of the box. Unfortunately, I had too much school work (and school play) to bring the software to market. Had I been more business-savvy at the time I would have brought in one or two partners to help market the product. Who knows… it could have grown into a competitor of Mathematica, AutoCAD, or Excel — it had aspects of all three.
I continue to be an entrepreneur in training. I’ve learned a few things.
- Business cards: I have business cards now!
- Smile, listen, and mingle.
- Listen to feedback.
- Keep your sales pitch short, then converse like a real human being, not a sales droid.
- Market both yourself and your company/venture. Online and offline.
- Market to people who are actually interested. Don’t waste time selling ice to Eskimos.
- Advertising. A necessary evil. Yes, you will likely have to part with some capital to grab the right people’s attention in a positive way.
- Branding. Logos, tag lines, style. Done right branding creates a sense of professionalism, familiarity, and trust.
Financially my most successful ventures have not been lofty, swing-for-the-fences efforts. Balhiser LLC’s rental property has earned over $10,000 and prospects remain good. The Sigma1 proprietary-trading group is currently up $2700, but markets are fickle. My card trading activities netted about $1200 over 4 years. My paper route earned about $1100 over 1.5 years.
Except for the rental property business, all my business ventures have been self financed and operated on shoe-string budgets. They have also been part-time, night and weekend activities. I have a full-time career in engineering, and while my employer hasn’t given me the golden handcuffs yet, I do wear a nice silver pair. Thus entrepreneurship will continue to be a part-time activity
My entrepreneurial successes have been modest, yet I am undaunted (at least most of the time). Today I am a minor league entrepreneur. I believe that within the next ten years I am likely to make it to the majors, because I have good ideas, tenacity, and passion. Luckily I know several successful entrepreneurs, and I listen to and learn from them. They encourage and inspire me when I need a little emotional support.
Entrepreneurship is not for everyone. It is difficult, if not impossible, to teach in a classroom; entrepreneurship must be experienced. It can be fraught with setbacks and dead ends. Passion can turn lead to burnout and frustration. Yet entrepreneurship can be exhilarating, stimulating, empowering, fulfilling and fun.
Entrepreneurs continue to drive the US economy. The best, most concise, most creative ideas come from entrepreneurs . Entrepreneurs also deliver mundane, but necessary goods and services ranging from car washes, to restaurants, street-side baseball snacks, and rental properties.
The entrepreneurial spirit is alive and well in the US. Recessions wipe out jobs, and some of the unemployed try out an entrepreneurial path. While many fail, some succeed. Some that succeed thrive, and build the businesses of tomorrow. These people create not only jobs for themselves, they create jobs for others. They drive innovation and keep America competitive.
I am not expert on entrepreneurship, but I am an entrepreneur. I work with other entrepreneurs and admire their spirit. While Washington pays lip-service to entrepreneurs, it seems to be ignoring the obstacles it puts into place, impeding entrepreneurs:
- Self-employment taxes. Small business pays Social Security and Medicare twice on every dollar earned. Even on the very first dollar.
- Employment and payroll rules and regulations. The red tape is one reason I hesitate to hire any employees.
- Regulations. The only reason my hedge fund is not open to the public (at least to select accredited investors) is the mountain of regulatory requirements.
Even against daunting odds and government red tape, entrepreneurs find a way. There are many who let red tape and taxes cause them either not enter the entrepreneurial game or quit it out of frustration. This is a shame, and a loss for the US economy. There are those who give up one entrepreneurial path (their first) choice, to pursue an alternate entrepreneurial path. This, too is a loss, but perhaps not a severe. Finally, there are some small businesses that simply stop growing… not from lack of opportunity, but to avoid the deep, sticky, red tape of employment law.
Right now I’m the category of entrepreneurs who are forgoing (for now) my first venture: the Sigma1 Hedge Fund, and pursuing my secondary venture — financial blogging. I have a couple accredited investors willing to invest with me, but I have told them for now to put that on hold.
It’s not that financial blogging is not enjoyable, it’s simply far more difficult to make reasonable profits from a finance blog. Given a choice, I’d rather make $250,000/year from blogging than managing a hedge fund. It’s much more likely that managing a hedge fund has a greater chance of making that kind of money. That, dear readers, is why blogging is my second choice for a business undertaking.
Entrepreneurs, I’d love to hear your stories. How you succeeded, how you failed, what you learned? Has government (federal, state, local) red tape gotten in your way? Have you found ways to succeed in spite of all that?
Whether it’s Barack Obama releasing 30 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, or Ben Bernanke saying they might buy another $300,000,000 worth of U.S. Treasurys… even after QE2. But, no, it’s not QE3… nah.
The oil gambit was, from a purely stimulative standpoint, an interesting move. It would have been more effective when oil was at $110 and rising rather than in the $90′s and falling. But, perhaps there was some political hay to be made. Short term this was not an inflationary move. However, someday, those 30 million barrels will have to be repurchased… which will have an inflationary effect. It was a short-term political move. From a geopolitical perspective, it also signals a US willingness to manipulate the oil markets… rather than being truly “Strategic” (aka for military and other strategic purposes). Ironically the Obama administration is accusing others of oil price “manipulation” while they just did just that with the SPR oil release.
And for Helicopter Ben, QE and QE2, both unprecedented; it seems that maybe a little more magic juice is called for. He doesn’t understand the current economic problems, other than to call them (mysterious) “headwinds”.
The situation, as I see it, is inflation-triggering non-stimulus. The magic “CPI” may not reflect this right away. In fact I believe inflation is currently outpacing “CPI Index” inflation by 1 to 2 percent.
I’m not fully aware of the whats or whys of QE3, I just know that I’m not supposed to call it QE3.
There are two economies, the real economy and the financial economy (the financial markets). The two economies are linked, but sometimes the linkage is almost imperceptible.
Take for instance the recent run up in stocks, up ~20% in the last year, and up a total of ~40% in the last two years. This stock run up in the financial economy is in spite of the dismal real economy which was (still is?) in the midst of the Great Recession. The classic explanation for this jump in stock prices is anticipation of strong economic growth that many were guessing was just around the next fiscal quarter or two.
But continued lackluster economic growth, high unemployment, and inflation fears have the stock markets retreating 4% in the last month. QE and QE2 have driven commodity, gold, silver, and oil prices up (and the dollar down to a degree). Low interest rates have also helped fuel the commodity boom. I don’t say commodity bubble, I say boom, because I don’t believe it is a bubble… merely a precursor to higher inflation.
Further the prospects of Congressional legislation past and present loom as large economy and business-dampening prospects.
- Dodd-Frank Act regulating all sorts of financial and non-financial items.
- Obama Care.
- The real possibility of tax increases as part of debt ceiling deal.
The danger of Dodd-Frank, which deals primarily with the financial economy, is that it may spill over into the real economy as well — a form of fiscal contagion. Obama Care hits right in the solar plexus of the real economy soon. Potential tax increases are a kidney shot to the real economy.
Also on the horizon is the debt crisis in Europe, currently centered around Greece, but with dominoes in Portugal, Spain, Italy and Ireland ready to fall.
So, why on earth would I be neutral to mildly bearish (long term) on US equities? The title “Wired on High Finance” sums it up.
- Wired, as is in connected, by wire, cable, fiber optics, or wireless. The continuing computational and connectivity revolution is only accelerating. This helps business productivity, which helps business (the real economy) and inevitably the financial economy (the stock market).
- High Finance. High finance in the US eventually finds a way. Take for instance GE which managed to pay zero income tax last year. Big money always finds a way. Call it industriousness, creativity, or greed… it gets things done.
Without all of the governmental fiscal and regulatory “headwinds” (as Bernanke has called them), my outlook would be bullish. Despite them, I believe that the power of a wired world of high finance will find ways to resist the government onslaught. Either through back-room deals (the new and no-so-new crony capitalism) or the ballot box (voters tired of 9% unemployment), these “headwinds” will be reduced, skirted, or avoided.
And while CPI stands for Consumer Price Index, most commonly, it also stands for Cycles Per Instruction — one measure of computer processing speed. So while the mainstream CPI may understate prices, the other CPI is very favorable to computation power. (In both cases keeping true CPI down is desirable.)
Notice I am neutral to mildly bullish on the US (and global) economy. That is why I, personally, am increasingly invested in investments that reflect that believe — namely covered-call market-index strategies. That is why I have switches some of my ETF investments from SPY (an S&P500 index EFT) to PBP (an S&P500 covered-call ETF). Inflation fears and low interest rates have continued to cause me to shy away from most bonds and bond fund… with the exception of high-yield (junk) bonds.
Disclaimer: These are my personal investing thoughts, opinions, and choices as of today. No one can reliably predict the markets (stock, bond, futures, options) or interest rates, certainly not me.
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